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Sai Gon vs Da Nang — V.League 1 2019

Sai Gon
Sai Gon
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Da Nang
Da Nang
2/26/2022V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 1Sân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sai Gon50%
×Draw26%
Da Nang23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sai Gon
1.48
Da Nang
0.91

Sai Gon creates 63% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 75 away

creates per match

Sai Gon
1.30
Da Nang
0.89

allows per match

Sai Gon
0.93
Da Nang
1.65

finishing

Sai Gon+0.00on par
Da Nang+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sai Gon ↓

Da Nang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sai Gon or draw
77%
Sai Gon or Da Nang
74%
Draw or Da Nang
50%

Winning margin

Sai Gon wins by 2+
25%
Da Nang wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sai Gon 1+ goals
77%
Sai Gon 2+ goals
43%
Sai Gon 3+ goals
19%
Da Nang 1+ goals
60%
Da Nang 2+ goals
23%
Da Nang 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sai Gon (draw refunded)
68%
Da Nang (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sai Gon at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 40 matches

Da Nang away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sai Gon attack 1.30 + Da Nang defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Da Nang attack 0.89 + Sai Gon defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sai Gon scores more
50%
level
26%
Da Nang scores more
23%

Sai Gon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sai Gon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sai Gon 2 – 2 Da Nang

Sai Gon and Da Nang drew 2-2 in V.League 1 on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Thống Nhất in Ho Chi Minh City.