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Da Nang vs Sai Gon — V.League 1 2019

Da Nang
Da Nang
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sai Gon
Sai Gon
11/3/2022V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 23Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Da Nang48%
×Draw25%
Sai Gon27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Da Nang
1.56
Sai Gon
1.10

Da Nang creates 42% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 42 away

creates per match

Da Nang
1.26
Sai Gon
1.12

allows per match

Da Nang
1.08
Sai Gon
1.86

finishing

Da Nang+0.00on par
Sai Gon+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Da Nang ↓

Sai Gon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Da Nang or draw
73%
Da Nang or Sai Gon
75%
Draw or Sai Gon
52%

Winning margin

Da Nang wins by 2+
25%
Sai Gon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Da Nang 1+ goals
79%
Da Nang 2+ goals
46%
Da Nang 3+ goals
21%
Sai Gon 1+ goals
67%
Sai Gon 2+ goals
30%
Sai Gon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Da Nang (draw refunded)
64%
Sai Gon (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Da Nang at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.08 · 76 matches

Sai Gon away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Da Nang attack 1.26 + Sai Gon defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sai Gon attack 1.12 + Da Nang defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Da Nang scores more
48%
level
25%
Sai Gon scores more
27%

Da Nang at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Da Nang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Da Nang vs Sai Gon

Da Nang beat Sai Gon 1-0 in V.League 1 on November 3, 2022.

The match was played at Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân in Da Nang.