Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Saguntino vs Elche II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Saguntino
Saguntino
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Elche II
Elche II
12/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 15Estadio Nou Camp de Morvedre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Saguntino39%
×Draw29%
Elche II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saguntino
1.20
Elche II
1.05

Saguntino creates 14% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 77 away

creates per match

Saguntino
1.39
Elche II
1.25

allows per match

Saguntino
0.86
Elche II
1.01

finishing

Saguntino+0.00on par
Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saguntino ↓

Elche II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Saguntino or draw
68%
Saguntino or Elche II
71%
Draw or Elche II
61%

Winning margin

Saguntino wins by 2+
17%
Elche II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Saguntino 1+ goals
70%
Saguntino 2+ goals
34%
Saguntino 3+ goals
12%
Elche II 1+ goals
65%
Elche II 2+ goals
28%
Elche II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Saguntino (draw refunded)
55%
Elche II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saguntino at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.86 · 80 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saguntino attack 1.39 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.20

Elche II attack 1.25 + Saguntino defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Saguntino scores more
39%
level
29%
Elche II scores more
32%

Saguntino at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Saguntino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saguntino vs Elche II

Saguntino beat Elche II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nou Camp de Morvedre in Sagunt.