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Elche II vs Saguntino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Elche II
Elche II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Saguntino
Saguntino
4/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 34Campo Diego Quiles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Elche II47%
×Draw27%
Saguntino26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche II
1.37
Saguntino
0.95

Elche II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 80 away

creates per match

Elche II
1.65
Saguntino
1.18

allows per match

Elche II
0.72
Saguntino
1.09

finishing

Elche II+0.00on par
Saguntino+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche II ↓

Saguntino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Elche II or draw
74%
Elche II or Saguntino
73%
Draw or Saguntino
53%

Winning margin

Elche II wins by 2+
22%
Saguntino wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Elche II 1+ goals
75%
Elche II 2+ goals
40%
Elche II 3+ goals
16%
Saguntino 1+ goals
61%
Saguntino 2+ goals
25%
Saguntino 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Elche II (draw refunded)
64%
Saguntino (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.72 · 75 matches

Saguntino away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche II attack 1.65 + Saguntino defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.37

Saguntino attack 1.18 + Elche II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Elche II scores more
47%
level
27%
Saguntino scores more
26%

Elche II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elche II vs Saguntino

Elche II beat Saguntino 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Diego Quiles in Elx.