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Sagrada Esperança vs Recreativo do Libolo — Girabola 2025

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
2/26/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 18Estádio Quintalão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sagrada Esperança51%
×Draw29%
Recreativo do Libolo19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.27
Recreativo do Libolo
0.66

Sagrada Esperança creates 92% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.16
Recreativo do Libolo
0.57

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.74
Recreativo do Libolo
1.38

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
81%
Sagrada Esperança or Recreativo do Libolo
71%
Draw or Recreativo do Libolo
49%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
24%
Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
72%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
36%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
14%
Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
48%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
14%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
73%
Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.16 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.57 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
51%
level
29%
Recreativo do Libolo scores more
19%

Sagrada Esperança at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sagrada Esperança vs Recreativo do Libolo

Sagrada Esperança beat Recreativo do Libolo 1-0 in Girabola on February 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Quintalão in Dundo.