Recreativo do Libolo 2–1 Sagrada Esperança

Recreativo do Libolo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sagrada Esperança

Unknown 82', 45+7'

Unknown 46'

9/28/2024

Girabola · Round 3Estádio Municipal de Calulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo51%

×Draw26%

Sagrada Esperança22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo do LiboloExpected goals in this matchSagrada Esperança

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.88

Recreativo do Libolo

1.48

Sagrada Esperança

0.88

Recreativo do Libolo creates 68% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

1.32

creates per match

0.91

0.84

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo

1.32

Sagrada Esperança

0.91

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo

0.84

Sagrada Esperança

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

Sagrada Esperança →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw

78%

Recreativo do Libolo or Sagrada Esperança

74%

Draw or Sagrada Esperança

49%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+

26%

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals

77%

Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals

43%

Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals

19%

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals

59%

Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals

22%

Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)

70%

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.32 + Sagrada Esperança defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.91 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more

51%

level

26%

Sagrada Esperança scores more

22%

Recreativo do Libolo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+7'

46'

82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff