Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sagrada Esperança vs Recreativo do Libolo — Girabola 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
1 – 0
Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
2/28/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 7Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Sagrada Esperança58%
×Draw26%
Recreativo do Libolo16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.50
Recreativo do Libolo
0.63

Sagrada Esperança creates 138% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.68
Recreativo do Libolo
0.73

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.53
Recreativo do Libolo
1.31

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
84%
Sagrada Esperança or Recreativo do Libolo
74%
Draw or Recreativo do Libolo
42%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
31%
Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
78%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
44%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
19%
Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
47%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
13%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
79%
Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.53 · 106 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.68 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.73 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
58%
level
26%
Recreativo do Libolo scores more
16%

Sagrada Esperança at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sagrada Esperança 1–0 Recreativo do Libolo

Sagrada Esperança beat Recreativo do Libolo 1-0 in Girabola on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.