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Sagrada Esperança vs Ferroviário do Huambo — Girabola 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
1 – 0
Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
5/8/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 18Estádio Quintalão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sagrada Esperança70%
×Draw21%
Ferroviário do Huambo9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.79
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.47

Sagrada Esperança creates 281% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 27 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.69
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.41

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.53
Ferroviário do Huambo
1.89

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Ferroviário do Huambo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
91%
Sagrada Esperança or Ferroviário do Huambo
79%
Draw or Ferroviário do Huambo
30%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
42%
Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
83%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
53%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
26%
Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
37%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
8%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
88%
Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.53 · 103 matches

Ferroviário do Huambo away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.69 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.79

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.41 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
70%
level
21%
Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
9%

Sagrada Esperança at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sagrada Esperança 1–0 Ferroviário do Huambo

Sagrada Esperança beat Ferroviário do Huambo 1-0 in Girabola on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Quintalão in Dundo.