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Ferroviário do Huambo vs Sagrada Esperança — Girabola 2019

Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
CANC
00:00
Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
4/5/2020GirabolaGirabola · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ferroviário do Huambo20%
×Draw29%
Sagrada Esperança51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviário do Huambo
0.68
Sagrada Esperança
1.28

Sagrada Esperança creates 88% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 104 away

creates per match

Ferroviário do Huambo
0.38
Sagrada Esperança
0.92

allows per match

Ferroviário do Huambo
1.65
Sagrada Esperança
0.97

finishing

Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par
Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviário do Huambo ↓

Sagrada Esperança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ferroviário do Huambo or draw
49%
Ferroviário do Huambo or Sagrada Esperança
71%
Draw or Sagrada Esperança
80%

Winning margin

Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
5%
Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
49%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
15%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
3%
Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
72%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
37%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
28%
Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviário do Huambo at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.97 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.38 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.68

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.92 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
20%
level
29%
Sagrada Esperança scores more
51%

Sagrada Esperança at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ferroviário do Huambo vs Sagrada Esperança — Match Preview

Ferroviário do Huambo face Sagrada Esperança on April 5, 2020 in this Girabola fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.