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Sagrada Esperança vs Carmona — Girabola 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Carmona
Carmona
11/10/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 9Estádio Quintalão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sagrada Esperança76%
×Draw17%
Carmona6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
2.08
Carmona
0.43

Sagrada Esperança creates 384% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.69
Carmona
0.33

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.53
Carmona
2.47

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Carmona+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Carmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
94%
Sagrada Esperança or Carmona
83%
Draw or Carmona
24%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
50%
Carmona wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
87%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
61%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
34%
Carmona 1+ goals
35%
Carmona 2+ goals
7%
Carmona 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
92%
Carmona (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.53 · 103 matches

Carmona away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.69 + Carmona defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.08

Carmona attack 0.33 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
76%
level
17%
Carmona scores more
6%

Sagrada Esperança at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sagrada Esperança 2–1 Carmona

Sagrada Esperança beat Carmona 2-1 in Girabola on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Quintalão in Dundo.