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Carmona vs Sagrada Esperança — Girabola 2019

Carmona
Carmona
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
4/12/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 24Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Carmona25%
×Draw34%
Sagrada Esperança41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carmona
0.69
Sagrada Esperança
0.96

Sagrada Esperança creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 104 away

creates per match

Carmona
0.40
Sagrada Esperança
0.92

allows per match

Carmona
1.00
Sagrada Esperança
0.97

finishing

Carmona+0.00on par
Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmona ↓

Sagrada Esperança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–118%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Carmona or draw
59%
Carmona or Sagrada Esperança
66%
Draw or Sagrada Esperança
75%

Winning margin

Carmona wins by 2+
7%
Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Carmona 1+ goals
50%
Carmona 2+ goals
15%
Carmona 3+ goals
3%
Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
62%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
25%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Carmona (draw refunded)
38%
Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmona at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.97 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmona attack 0.40 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.69

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.92 + Carmona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carmona scores more
25%
level
34%
Sagrada Esperança scores more
41%

Sagrada Esperança at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Carmona 0–1 Sagrada Esperança

Sagrada Esperança beat Carmona 1-0 in Girabola on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio 4 de Janeiro in Uíge.