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Sagrada Esperança vs ASA — Girabola 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
3 – 0
ASA
ASA
2/27/2019GirabolaGirabola · Round 16Estádio Quintalão (Dundo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sagrada Esperança63%
×Draw26%
ASA11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.49
ASA
0.45

Sagrada Esperança creates 231% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 27 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.68
ASA
0.37

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.53
ASA
1.30

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

ASA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
89%
Sagrada Esperança or ASA
74%
Draw or ASA
37%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
34%
ASA wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
77%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
44%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
19%
ASA 1+ goals
36%
ASA 2+ goals
8%
ASA 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
85%
ASA (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.53 · 106 matches

ASA away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.68 + ASA defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.49

ASA attack 0.37 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
63%
level
26%
ASA scores more
11%

Sagrada Esperança at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sagrada Esperança 3–0 ASA

Sagrada Esperança beat ASA 3-0 in Girabola on February 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Quintalão (Dundo).