ASA 0–0 Sagrada Esperança: Result & Stats

ASA

FT

0 – 0

Sagrada Esperança

7/4/2017

Girabola · Round 18Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

ASA29%

×Draw32%

Sagrada Esperança39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASAExpected goals in this matchSagrada Esperança

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.04

ASA

0.84

Sagrada Esperança

1.04

Sagrada Esperança creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 112 away

0.69

creates per match

0.90

1.19

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

ASA

0.69

Sagrada Esperança

0.90

allows per match

ASA

1.19

Sagrada Esperança

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASA+0.00on par

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA ↓

Sagrada Esperança →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

ASA or draw

61%

ASA or Sagrada Esperança

68%

Draw or Sagrada Esperança

71%

Winning margin

ASA wins by 2+

9%

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

ASA 1+ goals

57%

ASA 2+ goals

21%

ASA 3+ goals

5%

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals

65%

Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals

28%

Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

ASA (draw refunded)

42%

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.99 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA attack 0.69 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.84

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.90 + ASA defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ASA scores more

29%

level

32%

Sagrada Esperança scores more

39%

Sagrada Esperança at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff