Sagrada Esperança 2–0 Académica do Lobito

Sagrada Esperança

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Académica do Lobito

10/19/2024

Girabola · Round 6Estádio Quintalão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Sagrada Esperança59%

×Draw26%

Académica do Lobito15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sagrada EsperançaExpected goals in this matchAcadémica do Lobito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.60

Sagrada Esperança

1.50

Académica do Lobito

0.60

Sagrada Esperança creates 150% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 100 away

1.68

creates per match

0.68

0.53

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança

1.68

Académica do Lobito

0.68

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança

0.53

Académica do Lobito

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Académica do Lobito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw

85%

Sagrada Esperança or Académica do Lobito

74%

Draw or Académica do Lobito

41%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+

31%

Académica do Lobito wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals

78%

Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals

44%

Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals

19%

Académica do Lobito 1+ goals

45%

Académica do Lobito 2+ goals

12%

Académica do Lobito 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)

80%

Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.53 · 106 matches

Académica do Lobito away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.68 + Académica do Lobito defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Académica do Lobito attack 0.68 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more

59%

level

26%

Académica do Lobito scores more

15%

Sagrada Esperança at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff