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Académica do Lobito vs Sagrada Esperança — Girabola 2019

Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
3/15/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 21Estádio do Buraco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Académica do Lobito40%
×Draw32%
Sagrada Esperança28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Académica do Lobito
1.06
Sagrada Esperança
0.83

Académica do Lobito creates 28% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 112 away

creates per match

Académica do Lobito
1.13
Sagrada Esperança
0.90

allows per match

Académica do Lobito
0.76
Sagrada Esperança
0.99

finishing

Académica do Lobito+0.00on par
Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Lobito ↓

Sagrada Esperança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Académica do Lobito or draw
72%
Académica do Lobito or Sagrada Esperança
68%
Draw or Sagrada Esperança
60%

Winning margin

Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
16%
Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
65%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
29%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
9%
Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
56%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
20%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
59%
Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Lobito at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.99 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Lobito attack 1.13 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.90 + Académica do Lobito defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Académica do Lobito scores more
40%
level
32%
Sagrada Esperança scores more
28%

Académica do Lobito at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Académica do Lobito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Académica do Lobito vs Sagrada Esperança

Académica do Lobito beat Sagrada Esperança 1-0 in Girabola on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio do Buraco in Lobito.