Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sagan Tosu vs Cerezo Osaka — J1 League 2018

Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
7/8/2023J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 20Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Sagan Tosu37%
×Draw27%
Cerezo Osaka35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagan Tosu
1.25
Cerezo Osaka
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 150 away

creates per match

Sagan Tosu
1.26
Cerezo Osaka
1.24

allows per match

Sagan Tosu
1.19
Cerezo Osaka
1.24

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par
Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

Cerezo Osaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw
65%
Sagan Tosu or Cerezo Osaka
73%
Draw or Cerezo Osaka
63%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
16%
Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
71%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
36%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
13%
Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
70%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
34%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
51%
Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.26 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.24 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more
37%
level
27%
Cerezo Osaka scores more
35%

Sagan Tosu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sagan Tosu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Sagan Tosu 2–1 Cerezo Osaka

Sagan Tosu beat Cerezo Osaka 2-1 in J1 League on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium in Tosu.