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Cerezo Osaka vs Sagan Tosu — J1 League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
9/10/2022J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 29Yodoko Sakura Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Cerezo Osaka45%
×Draw27%
Sagan Tosu28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.40
Sagan Tosu
1.04

Cerezo Osaka creates 35% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 124 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.37
Sagan Tosu
0.99

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.10
Sagan Tosu
1.43

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par
Sagan Tosu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Sagan Tosu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
72%
Cerezo Osaka or Sagan Tosu
73%
Draw or Sagan Tosu
55%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
22%
Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
75%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
41%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
17%
Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
65%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
28%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
62%
Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 147 matches

Sagan Tosu away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.37 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sagan Tosu attack 0.99 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
45%
level
27%
Sagan Tosu scores more
28%

Cerezo Osaka at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Cerezo Osaka 2–1 Sagan Tosu

Cerezo Osaka beat Sagan Tosu 2-1 in J1 League on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Yodoko Sakura Stadium in Osaka.