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Sagan Tosu vs Albirex Niigata — J1 League 2018

Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
2/24/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 1Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sagan Tosu43%
×Draw27%
Albirex Niigata29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagan Tosu
1.36
Albirex Niigata
1.07

Sagan Tosu creates 27% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sagan Tosu
1.26
Albirex Niigata
0.95

allows per match

Sagan Tosu
1.19
Albirex Niigata
1.46

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par
Albirex Niigata+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

Albirex Niigata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw
71%
Sagan Tosu or Albirex Niigata
73%
Draw or Albirex Niigata
57%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
20%
Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
74%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
39%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
16%
Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
66%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
29%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
60%
Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.46 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.26 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Albirex Niigata attack 0.95 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more
43%
level
27%
Albirex Niigata scores more
29%

Sagan Tosu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sagan Tosu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sagan Tosu vs Albirex Niigata

Albirex Niigata beat Sagan Tosu 2-1 in J1 League on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium in Tosu.