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Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu — J1 League 2018

Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
10/21/2023J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 30Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Albirex Niigata37%
×Draw27%
Sagan Tosu36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata
1.30
Sagan Tosu
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 124 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata
1.18
Sagan Tosu
0.99

allows per match

Albirex Niigata
1.57
Sagan Tosu
1.43

finishing

Albirex Niigata+0.00on par
Sagan Tosu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Sagan Tosu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw
64%
Albirex Niigata or Sagan Tosu
73%
Draw or Sagan Tosu
63%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
17%
Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
73%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
37%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
14%
Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
72%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
37%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
51%
Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

Sagan Tosu away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.18 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sagan Tosu attack 0.99 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more
37%
level
27%
Sagan Tosu scores more
36%

Albirex Niigata at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu

Albirex Niigata and Sagan Tosu drew 1-1 in J1 League on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata.