Sagamihara vs Jubilo Iwata — J2 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
Sagamihara27%
Jubilo Iwata46%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Jubilo Iwata creates 37% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 84 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sagamihara ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sagamihara at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches
Jubilo Iwata away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sagamihara attack 0.95 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02
Jubilo Iwata attack 1.42 + Sagamihara defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Jubilo Iwata at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Jubilo Iwata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Tokushima Vortis
Avispa Fukuoka
V-varen Nagasaki
Ventforet Kofu
KitakyushuJubilo Iwata
Montedio Yamagata
Kyoto Sanga
Mito Hollyhock
Tochigi SC
Albirex Niigata
Tokyo Verdy
Matsumoto Yamaga
JEF United Chiba
Omiya Ardija
FC Ryukyu
Fagiano Okayama
Kanazawa
Machida Zelvia
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Ehime FC
Renofa YamaguchiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sagamihara host Jubilo Iwata on Sunday, 18 April 2021 at 04:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2018/2019 season.
J2 League: Sagamihara 1–2 Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata beat Sagamihara 2-1 in J2 League on April 18, 2021.
Goals: Lukian (5', 74'), Yuri Mamute (19').
The match was played at Sagamihara Gion Stadium in Sagamihara.