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Jubilo Iwata vs Sagamihara — J2 League 2018

Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sagamihara
Sagamihara
8/28/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 27Yamaha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Jubilo Iwata52%
×Draw26%
Sagamihara22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jubilo Iwata
1.53
Sagamihara
0.90

Jubilo Iwata creates 70% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 21 away

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.87
Sagamihara
0.62

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.17
Sagamihara
1.19

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par
Sagamihara+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Sagamihara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw
78%
Jubilo Iwata or Sagamihara
74%
Draw or Sagamihara
48%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
27%
Sagamihara wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
78%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
45%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
20%
Sagamihara 1+ goals
59%
Sagamihara 2+ goals
23%
Sagamihara 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
70%
Sagamihara (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.17 · 84 matches

Sagamihara away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.87 + Sagamihara defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sagamihara attack 0.62 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more
52%
level
26%
Sagamihara scores more
22%

Jubilo Iwata at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jubilo Iwata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jubilo Iwata vs Sagamihara

Jubilo Iwata and Sagamihara drew 1-1 in J2 League on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Yamaha Stadium in Iwata.