Säffle SK 1–4 Kongahälla: Result & Stats

Säffle SK

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Kongahälla

5/9/2024

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 7Sporthälla IP A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Säffle SK32%

×Draw21%

Kongahälla46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Säffle SKExpected goals in this matchKongahälla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.02

Säffle SK

1.66

Kongahälla

2.02

Kongahälla creates 22% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.31

creates per match

2.46

1.58

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Säffle SK

1.31

Kongahälla

2.46

allows per match

Säffle SK

1.58

Kongahälla

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Säffle SK+0.00on par

Kongahälla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Säffle SK ↓

Kongahälla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Säffle SK or draw

54%

Säffle SK or Kongahälla

79%

Draw or Kongahälla

68%

Winning margin

Säffle SK wins by 2+

16%

Kongahälla wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Säffle SK 1+ goals

81%

Säffle SK 2+ goals

49%

Säffle SK 3+ goals

23%

Kongahälla 1+ goals

87%

Kongahälla 2+ goals

60%

Kongahälla 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Säffle SK (draw refunded)

41%

Kongahälla (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Säffle SK at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

Kongahälla away — creates 2.46, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Säffle SK attack 1.31 + Kongahälla defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Kongahälla attack 2.46 + Säffle SK defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Säffle SK scores more

32%

level

21%

Kongahälla scores more

46%

Kongahälla at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kongahälla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff