Kongahälla 3–1 Säffle SK: Result & Stats

Kongahälla

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Säffle SK

9/7/2024

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 20Kongevi IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kongahälla62%

×Draw21%

Säffle SK17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KongahällaExpected goals in this matchSäffle SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.93

Kongahälla

1.98

Säffle SK

0.93

Kongahälla creates 113% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.73

creates per match

0.81

1.04

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Kongahälla

1.73

Säffle SK

0.81

allows per match

Kongahälla

1.04

Säffle SK

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kongahälla+0.00on par

Säffle SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongahälla ↓

Säffle SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kongahälla or draw

83%

Kongahälla or Säffle SK

79%

Draw or Säffle SK

38%

Winning margin

Kongahälla wins by 2+

37%

Säffle SK wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kongahälla 1+ goals

86%

Kongahälla 2+ goals

59%

Kongahälla 3+ goals

31%

Säffle SK 1+ goals

61%

Säffle SK 2+ goals

24%

Säffle SK 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kongahälla (draw refunded)

78%

Säffle SK (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongahälla at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Säffle SK away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongahälla attack 1.73 + Säffle SK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.98

Säffle SK attack 0.81 + Kongahälla defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kongahälla scores more

62%

level

21%

Säffle SK scores more

17%

Kongahälla at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kongahälla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff