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Säffle SK vs Ahlafors — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Säffle SK
Säffle SK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ahlafors
Ahlafors
10/20/2024Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 26Sporthälla IP A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Säffle SK36%
×Draw23%
Ahlafors41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Säffle SK
1.61
Ahlafors
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 66 away

creates per match

Säffle SK
1.31
Ahlafors
1.89

allows per match

Säffle SK
1.58
Ahlafors
1.91

finishing

Säffle SK+0.00on par
Ahlafors+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Säffle SK ↓

Ahlafors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Säffle SK or draw
59%
Säffle SK or Ahlafors
77%
Draw or Ahlafors
64%

Winning margin

Säffle SK wins by 2+
18%
Ahlafors wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Säffle SK 1+ goals
80%
Säffle SK 2+ goals
48%
Säffle SK 3+ goals
22%
Ahlafors 1+ goals
82%
Ahlafors 2+ goals
52%
Ahlafors 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Säffle SK (draw refunded)
47%
Ahlafors (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Säffle SK at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

Ahlafors away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Säffle SK attack 1.31 + Ahlafors defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ahlafors attack 1.89 + Säffle SK defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Säffle SK scores more
36%
level
23%
Ahlafors scores more
41%

Ahlafors at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ahlafors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Säffle SK vs Ahlafors

Säffle SK beat Ahlafors 2-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sporthälla IP A-plan in Säffle.