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Ahlafors vs Säffle SK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Ahlafors
Ahlafors
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Säffle SK
Säffle SK
6/8/2024Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 11Svenska Stenhus Arena 1 Gräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ahlafors65%
×Draw19%
Säffle SK16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahlafors
2.24
Säffle SK
1.02

Ahlafors creates 120% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 26 away

creates per match

Ahlafors
2.25
Säffle SK
0.81

allows per match

Ahlafors
1.24
Säffle SK
2.23

finishing

Ahlafors+0.00on par
Säffle SK+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahlafors ↓

Säffle SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ahlafors or draw
84%
Ahlafors or Säffle SK
81%
Draw or Säffle SK
35%

Winning margin

Ahlafors wins by 2+
41%
Säffle SK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ahlafors 1+ goals
89%
Ahlafors 2+ goals
65%
Ahlafors 3+ goals
38%
Säffle SK 1+ goals
64%
Säffle SK 2+ goals
27%
Säffle SK 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ahlafors (draw refunded)
80%
Säffle SK (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahlafors at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Säffle SK away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahlafors attack 2.25 + Säffle SK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.24

Säffle SK attack 0.81 + Ahlafors defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ahlafors scores more
65%
level
19%
Säffle SK scores more
16%

Ahlafors at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ahlafors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ahlafors vs Säffle SK

Ahlafors and Säffle SK drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Svenska Stenhus Arena 1 Gräs in Alafors.