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Safa vs Bourj — Premier League 2019

Safa
Safa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bourj
Bourj
11/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Al Safa SC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Safa42%
×Draw28%
Bourj30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Safa
1.29
Bourj
1.05

Safa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 57 away

creates per match

Safa
1.51
Bourj
1.02

allows per match

Safa
1.08
Bourj
1.07

finishing

Safa+0.00on par
Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Safa ↓

Bourj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Safa or draw
70%
Safa or Bourj
72%
Draw or Bourj
58%

Winning margin

Safa wins by 2+
19%
Bourj wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Safa 1+ goals
72%
Safa 2+ goals
37%
Safa 3+ goals
14%
Bourj 1+ goals
65%
Bourj 2+ goals
28%
Bourj 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Safa (draw refunded)
58%
Bourj (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Safa at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 65 matches

Bourj away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Safa attack 1.51 + Bourj defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bourj attack 1.02 + Safa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Safa scores more
42%
level
28%
Bourj scores more
30%

Safa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Safa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Safa vs Bourj

Safa beat Bourj 2-0 in Premier League on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Al Safa SC Stadium in Bayrūt (Beirut).