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Bourj vs Safa — Premier League 2019

Bourj
Bourj
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Safa
Safa
2/6/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Al Ahed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Bourj36%
×Draw27%
Safa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bourj
1.23
Safa
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 70 away

creates per match

Bourj
1.13
Safa
1.31

allows per match

Bourj
1.23
Safa
1.34

finishing

Bourj+0.00on par
Safa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bourj ↓

Safa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bourj or draw
63%
Bourj or Safa
73%
Draw or Safa
64%

Winning margin

Bourj wins by 2+
15%
Safa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bourj 1+ goals
71%
Bourj 2+ goals
35%
Bourj 3+ goals
13%
Safa 1+ goals
72%
Safa 2+ goals
36%
Safa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bourj (draw refunded)
49%
Safa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bourj at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

Safa away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bourj attack 1.13 + Safa defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Safa attack 1.31 + Bourj defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bourj scores more
36%
level
27%
Safa scores more
37%

Safa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Safa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bourj 0 – 4 Safa

Safa beat Bourj 4-0 in Premier League on February 6, 2025.

The match was played at Al Ahed Stadium in Beirut.