Sadovo 1–4 Neftochimic Burgas: Result & Stats

Sadovo

FT

1 – 4

Neftochimic Burgas

5/8/2019

Third League - Southeast · Round 30Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sadovo23%

×Draw25%

Neftochimic Burgas52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SadovoExpected goals in this matchNeftochimic Burgas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.62

Sadovo

0.98

Neftochimic Burgas

1.62

Neftochimic Burgas creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

0.94

creates per match

1.71

1.53

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Sadovo

0.94

Neftochimic Burgas

1.71

allows per match

Sadovo

1.53

Neftochimic Burgas

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sadovo+0.00on par

Neftochimic Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sadovo ↓

Neftochimic Burgas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sadovo or draw

48%

Sadovo or Neftochimic Burgas

75%

Draw or Neftochimic Burgas

77%

Winning margin

Sadovo wins by 2+

8%

Neftochimic Burgas wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Sadovo 1+ goals

62%

Sadovo 2+ goals

26%

Sadovo 3+ goals

8%

Neftochimic Burgas 1+ goals

80%

Neftochimic Burgas 2+ goals

48%

Neftochimic Burgas 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sadovo (draw refunded)

30%

Neftochimic Burgas (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sadovo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Neftochimic Burgas away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.03 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sadovo attack 0.94 + Neftochimic Burgas defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Neftochimic Burgas attack 1.71 + Sadovo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sadovo scores more

23%

level

25%

Neftochimic Burgas scores more

52%

Neftochimic Burgas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Neftochimic Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff