Neftochimic Burgas 3–0 Sadovo: Result & Stats

Neftochimic Burgas

FT

3 – 0

Sadovo

11/3/2018

Third League - Southeast · Round 13Stadion Lazur (Burgas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Neftochimic Burgas88%

×Draw9%

Sadovo3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neftochimic BurgasExpected goals in this matchSadovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

0.40

Neftochimic Burgas

3.04

Sadovo

0.40

Neftochimic Burgas creates 660% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

2.31

creates per match

0.12

0.69

allows per match

3.76

creates per match

Neftochimic Burgas

2.31

Sadovo

0.12

allows per match

Neftochimic Burgas

0.69

Sadovo

3.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neftochimic Burgas+0.00on par

Sadovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftochimic Burgas ↓

Sadovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–016%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (16%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Neftochimic Burgas or draw

97%

Neftochimic Burgas or Sadovo

91%

Draw or Sadovo

12%

Winning margin

Neftochimic Burgas wins by 2+

71%

Sadovo wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Neftochimic Burgas 1+ goals

95%

Neftochimic Burgas 2+ goals

80%

Neftochimic Burgas 3+ goals

57%

Sadovo 1+ goals

33%

Sadovo 2+ goals

6%

Sadovo 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Neftochimic Burgas (draw refunded)

97%

Sadovo (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftochimic Burgas at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.69 · 35 matches

Sadovo away — creates 0.12, concedes 3.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftochimic Burgas attack 2.31 + Sadovo defence 3.76 → ÷2 → 3.04

Sadovo attack 0.12 + Neftochimic Burgas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Neftochimic Burgas scores more

88%

level

9%

Sadovo scores more

3%

Neftochimic Burgas at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Neftochimic Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff