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Sadovo vs Levski Karlovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sadovo
Sadovo
FT
1 – 0
Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
11/10/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 14Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sadovo44%
×Draw25%
Levski Karlovo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sadovo
1.58
Levski Karlovo
1.29

Sadovo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 136 away

creates per match

Sadovo
0.94
Levski Karlovo
1.04

allows per match

Sadovo
1.53
Levski Karlovo
2.22

finishing

Sadovo+0.00on par
Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sadovo ↓

Levski Karlovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sadovo or draw
69%
Sadovo or Levski Karlovo
75%
Draw or Levski Karlovo
56%

Winning margin

Sadovo wins by 2+
22%
Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sadovo 1+ goals
79%
Sadovo 2+ goals
47%
Sadovo 3+ goals
21%
Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
72%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
37%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sadovo (draw refunded)
59%
Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sadovo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Levski Karlovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.22 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sadovo attack 0.94 + Levski Karlovo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.58

Levski Karlovo attack 1.04 + Sadovo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sadovo scores more
44%
level
25%
Levski Karlovo scores more
31%

Sadovo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sadovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sadovo 1–0 Levski Karlovo

Sadovo beat Levski Karlovo 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo).