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Levski Karlovo vs Sadovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
FT
2 – 0
Sadovo
Sadovo
5/12/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 31Stadion Vasil Levski (Karlovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Karlovo80%
×Draw14%
Sadovo7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Karlovo
2.63
Sadovo
0.63

Levski Karlovo creates 317% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 17 away

creates per match

Levski Karlovo
1.51
Sadovo
0.12

allows per match

Levski Karlovo
1.13
Sadovo
3.76

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par
Sadovo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Sadovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw
93%
Levski Karlovo or Sadovo
86%
Draw or Sadovo
20%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
58%
Sadovo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
93%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
73%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
48%
Sadovo 1+ goals
47%
Sadovo 2+ goals
13%
Sadovo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
92%
Sadovo (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Sadovo away — creates 0.12, concedes 3.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Sadovo defence 3.76 → ÷2 → 2.63

Sadovo attack 0.12 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more
80%
level
14%
Sadovo scores more
7%

Levski Karlovo at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Karlovo vs Sadovo

Levski Karlovo beat Sadovo 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski (Karlovo).