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Sadovo vs Dimitrovgrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sadovo
Sadovo
FT
2 – 0
Dimitrovgrad
Dimitrovgrad
8/25/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 3Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sadovo43%
×Draw26%
Dimitrovgrad31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sadovo
1.44
Dimitrovgrad
1.17

Sadovo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 135 away

creates per match

Sadovo
0.94
Dimitrovgrad
0.80

allows per match

Sadovo
1.53
Dimitrovgrad
1.95

finishing

Sadovo+0.00on par
Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sadovo ↓

Dimitrovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sadovo or draw
69%
Sadovo or Dimitrovgrad
74%
Draw or Dimitrovgrad
57%

Winning margin

Sadovo wins by 2+
21%
Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sadovo 1+ goals
76%
Sadovo 2+ goals
42%
Sadovo 3+ goals
18%
Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
69%
Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
33%
Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sadovo (draw refunded)
58%
Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sadovo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Dimitrovgrad away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.95 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sadovo attack 0.94 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dimitrovgrad attack 0.80 + Sadovo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sadovo scores more
43%
level
26%
Dimitrovgrad scores more
31%

Sadovo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sadovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sadovo 2–0 Dimitrovgrad

Sadovo beat Dimitrovgrad 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo).