Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dimitrovgrad vs Sadovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Dimitrovgrad
Dimitrovgrad
FT
3 – 0
Sadovo
Sadovo
3/9/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 20Stadion Minyor (Dimitrovgrad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dimitrovgrad80%
×Draw13%
Sadovo6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimitrovgrad
2.67
Sadovo
0.62

Dimitrovgrad creates 331% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dimitrovgrad
1.58
Sadovo
0.12

allows per match

Dimitrovgrad
1.12
Sadovo
3.76

finishing

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par
Sadovo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimitrovgrad ↓

Sadovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dimitrovgrad or draw
94%
Dimitrovgrad or Sadovo
87%
Draw or Sadovo
20%

Winning margin

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
59%
Sadovo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
93%
Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
74%
Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
49%
Sadovo 1+ goals
46%
Sadovo 2+ goals
13%
Sadovo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
93%
Sadovo (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 136 matches

Sadovo away — creates 0.12, concedes 3.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimitrovgrad attack 1.58 + Sadovo defence 3.76 → ÷2 → 2.67

Sadovo attack 0.12 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Dimitrovgrad scores more
80%
level
13%
Sadovo scores more
6%

Dimitrovgrad at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dimitrovgrad vs Sadovo

Dimitrovgrad beat Sadovo 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor (Dimitrovgrad).