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Sacramento Republic vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
5/14/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 12Heart Health Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Sacramento Republic51%
×Draw25%
Indy Eleven24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sacramento Republic
1.60
Indy Eleven
1.03

Sacramento Republic creates 55% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 131 away

creates per match

Sacramento Republic
1.61
Indy Eleven
1.13

allows per match

Sacramento Republic
0.93
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

Sacramento Republic+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacramento Republic ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sacramento Republic or draw
76%
Sacramento Republic or Indy Eleven
75%
Draw or Indy Eleven
49%

Winning margin

Sacramento Republic wins by 2+
26%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sacramento Republic 1+ goals
80%
Sacramento Republic 2+ goals
47%
Sacramento Republic 3+ goals
22%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
64%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
28%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sacramento Republic (draw refunded)
67%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacramento Republic at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.93 · 139 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.58 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacramento Republic attack 1.61 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Indy Eleven attack 1.13 + Sacramento Republic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sacramento Republic scores more
51%
level
25%
Indy Eleven scores more
24%

Sacramento Republic at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sacramento Republic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sacramento Republic vs Indy Eleven

Sacramento Republic beat Indy Eleven 3-1 in USL Championship on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Heart Health Park in Sacramento, California.