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Indy Eleven vs Sacramento Republic — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic
3/23/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 3Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Indy Eleven40%
×Draw27%
Sacramento Republic33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.32
Sacramento Republic
1.16

Indy Eleven creates 14% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 132 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Sacramento Republic
1.19

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Sacramento Republic
1.16

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Sacramento Republic+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Sacramento Republic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
67%
Indy Eleven or Sacramento Republic
73%
Draw or Sacramento Republic
60%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
18%
Sacramento Republic wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
73%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
38%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
15%
Sacramento Republic 1+ goals
69%
Sacramento Republic 2+ goals
32%
Sacramento Republic 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
55%
Sacramento Republic (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 135 matches

Sacramento Republic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Sacramento Republic defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sacramento Republic attack 1.19 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
40%
level
27%
Sacramento Republic scores more
33%

Indy Eleven at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 1–1 Sacramento Republic

Indy Eleven and Sacramento Republic drew 1-1 in USL Championship on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Michael A. Carroll Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.