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Sacavenense vs Alverca — Taça de Portugal 2018

Sacavenense
Sacavenense
FT
2 – 1
Alverca
Alverca
9/8/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo do Sacavenense (Sacavém)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sacavenense38%
×Draw22%
Alverca40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sacavenense
1.77
Alverca
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sacavenense
2.14
Alverca
1.40

allows per match

Sacavenense
2.29
Alverca
1.40

finishing

Sacavenense+0.00on par
Alverca+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacavenense ↓

Alverca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sacavenense or draw
60%
Sacavenense or Alverca
78%
Draw or Alverca
62%

Winning margin

Sacavenense wins by 2+
19%
Alverca wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sacavenense 1+ goals
83%
Sacavenense 2+ goals
53%
Sacavenense 3+ goals
26%
Alverca 1+ goals
84%
Alverca 2+ goals
55%
Alverca 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sacavenense (draw refunded)
48%
Alverca (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacavenense at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Alverca away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacavenense attack 2.14 + Alverca defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

Alverca attack 1.40 + Sacavenense defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sacavenense scores more
38%
level
22%
Alverca scores more
40%

Alverca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sacavenense vs Alverca

Sacavenense beat Alverca 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Campo do Sacavenense (Sacavém).