Alverca 3–0 Sacavenense: Result & Stats

Alverca

FT

3 – 0

Sacavenense

9/8/2019

Taça de Portugal · 1st RoundComplexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alverca78%

×Draw14%

Sacavenense8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlvercaExpected goals in this matchSacavenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

0.67

Alverca

2.58

Sacavenense

0.67

Alverca creates 285% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

3.50

creates per match

0.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Alverca

3.50

Sacavenense

0.67

allows per match

Alverca

0.67

Sacavenense

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par

Sacavenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Sacavenense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Alverca or draw

92%

Alverca or Sacavenense

86%

Draw or Sacavenense

22%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+

56%

Sacavenense wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals

92%

Alverca 2+ goals

72%

Alverca 3+ goals

47%

Sacavenense 1+ goals

49%

Sacavenense 2+ goals

15%

Sacavenense 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)

91%

Sacavenense (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Sacavenense away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 3.50 + Sacavenense defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.58

Sacavenense attack 0.67 + Alverca defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Alverca scores more

78%

level

14%

Sacavenense scores more

8%

Alverca at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff