Saburtalo II 0–0 Merani Martvili: Result & Stats

Saburtalo II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Merani Martvili

10/1/2025

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 26Stadioni Bendela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Saburtalo II45%

×Draw27%

Merani Martvili28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saburtalo IIExpected goals in this matchMerani Martvili

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.04

Saburtalo II

1.40

Merani Martvili

1.04

Saburtalo II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 83 away

1.15

creates per match

1.27

0.80

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Saburtalo II

1.15

Merani Martvili

1.27

allows per match

Saburtalo II

0.80

Merani Martvili

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saburtalo II+0.00on par

Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saburtalo II ↓

Merani Martvili →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Saburtalo II or draw

72%

Saburtalo II or Merani Martvili

73%

Draw or Merani Martvili

55%

Winning margin

Saburtalo II wins by 2+

22%

Merani Martvili wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Saburtalo II 1+ goals

75%

Saburtalo II 2+ goals

41%

Saburtalo II 3+ goals

17%

Merani Martvili 1+ goals

65%

Merani Martvili 2+ goals

28%

Merani Martvili 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Saburtalo II (draw refunded)

62%

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saburtalo II at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saburtalo II attack 1.15 + Merani Martvili defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Merani Martvili attack 1.27 + Saburtalo II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saburtalo II scores more

45%

level

27%

Merani Martvili scores more

28%

Saburtalo II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saburtalo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Z. Eradze

22'

G. Gogsadze

46'

D. Khorava← T. Latsabidze

51'

G. Gogsadze

51'

G. Gogsadze

58'

L. Kadaria← S. Jalolov

58'

G. Lasha← Z. Sikharulia

65'

N. Chumburidze← S. Kverenchkhiladze

65'

S. Murvanidze← A. Dzagania

73'

I. Khaymanov

76'

R. Vacheishvili← D. Kvartskhava

80'

J. Khmelidze← B. Laghadze

Saburtalo

Merani

1

Khamkhoev

26

Shonia

29

Khaymanov

3

▼

17

4

25

33

▼

Laghadze

10

▼

Sikharuli

2

▼

7

16

2

3

40

26

36

▼

Kverenchk

8

Chachua

20

Tsamalash

19

▼

Kvartskha

9

▼

Dzagania

7

Gogilashv

Manager: G. Nergadze

65'▲N. Chumburidze←▼S. Kverenchkhiladze

65'▲S. Murvanidze←▼A. Dzagania

76'▲R. Vacheishvili←▼D. Kvartskhava

Saburtalo II substitutes

12Bochorishvili5Chumburidze15Kakulia23Vacheishvili27Chanturia30Tsamalashvili33Murvanidze34Ustiashvili35Babunadze

Manager: G. Khelaia

46'▲D. Khorava←▼T. Latsabidze

58'▲L. Kadaria←▼S. Jalolov

58'▲G. Lasha←▼Z. Sikharulia

80'▲J. Khmelidze←▼B. Laghadze

Merani Martvili substitutes

31Chachava8Kadaria16Lasha18Tsulaia19Khorava22Khmelidze40Shamatava

Match Recap: Saburtalo II vs Merani Martvili

Saburtalo II and Merani Martvili drew 0-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on October 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadioni Bendela in Tbilisi.

Saburtalo II vs Merani Martvili — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Saburtalo II vs Merani Martvili