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Saburtalo II vs Merani Martvili — Liga 3 2024

Saburtalo II
Saburtalo II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
S. Tsamalashvili 90+2'
J. Esonkulov 72'
10/3/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Saburtalo II50%
×Draw26%
Merani Martvili24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saburtalo II
1.52
Merani Martvili
0.98

Saburtalo II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

creates per match

Saburtalo II
2.04
Merani Martvili
1.13

allows per match

Saburtalo II
0.83
Merani Martvili
1.00

finishing

Saburtalo II+0.00on par
Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saburtalo II ↓

Merani Martvili →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Saburtalo II or draw
76%
Saburtalo II or Merani Martvili
74%
Draw or Merani Martvili
50%

Winning margin

Saburtalo II wins by 2+
25%
Merani Martvili wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Saburtalo II 1+ goals
78%
Saburtalo II 2+ goals
45%
Saburtalo II 3+ goals
20%
Merani Martvili 1+ goals
62%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
26%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Saburtalo II (draw refunded)
67%
Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saburtalo II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saburtalo II attack 2.04 + Merani Martvili defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Merani Martvili attack 1.13 + Saburtalo II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Saburtalo II scores more
50%
level
26%
Merani Martvili scores more
24%

Saburtalo II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Saburtalo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'
J. Esonkulov
90+2'
S. Tsamalashvili

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saburtalo II vs Merani Martvili

Saburtalo II and Merani Martvili drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on October 3, 2024.

Goals: J. Esonkulov (72'), S. Tsamalashvili (90+2').