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Sable vs Les Astres — Elite Two 2020

Sable
Sable
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Les Astres
Les Astres
4/11/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sable45%
×Draw24%
Les Astres31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sable
1.65
Les Astres
1.35

Sable creates 22% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sable
2.10
Les Astres
1.80

allows per match

Sable
0.90
Les Astres
1.20

finishing

Sable+0.00on par
Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sable ↓

Les Astres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sable or draw
69%
Sable or Les Astres
76%
Draw or Les Astres
55%

Winning margin

Sable wins by 2+
23%
Les Astres wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sable 1+ goals
81%
Sable 2+ goals
49%
Sable 3+ goals
23%
Les Astres 1+ goals
74%
Les Astres 2+ goals
39%
Les Astres 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sable (draw refunded)
59%
Les Astres (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sable at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sable attack 2.10 + Les Astres defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.65

Les Astres attack 1.80 + Sable defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sable scores more
45%
level
24%
Les Astres scores more
31%

Sable at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sable will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sable vs Les Astres

Les Astres beat Sable 2-0 in Elite Two on April 11, 2026.