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Les Astres vs Sable — Elite Two 2020

Les Astres
Les Astres
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sable
Sable
2/7/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Les Astres30%
×Draw27%
Sable43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Les Astres
1.11
Sable
1.39

Sable creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Les Astres
1.22
Sable
1.00

allows per match

Les Astres
1.78
Sable
1.00

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par
Sable+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Sable →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw
57%
Les Astres or Sable
73%
Draw or Sable
70%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+
12%
Sable wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals
67%
Les Astres 2+ goals
30%
Les Astres 3+ goals
10%
Sable 1+ goals
75%
Sable 2+ goals
40%
Sable 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)
41%
Sable (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Sable away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.22 + Sable defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sable attack 1.00 + Les Astres defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Les Astres scores more
30%
level
27%
Sable scores more
43%

Sable at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sable will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Les Astres 2–1 Sable

Les Astres beat Sable 2-1 in Elite Two on February 7, 2026.