Sable 3–1 Eding Sport: Result & Stats | Elite Two

Sable

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Eding Sport

4/29/2026

Elite Two · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sable55%

×Draw24%

Eding Sport21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SableExpected goals in this matchEding Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.92

Sable

1.68

Eding Sport

0.92

Sable creates 83% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 28 away

2.10

creates per match

0.93

0.90

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Sable

2.10

Eding Sport

0.93

allows per match

Sable

0.90

Eding Sport

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sable+0.00on par

Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sable ↓

Eding Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sable or draw

79%

Sable or Eding Sport

76%

Draw or Eding Sport

45%

Winning margin

Sable wins by 2+

30%

Eding Sport wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sable 1+ goals

81%

Sable 2+ goals

50%

Sable 3+ goals

24%

Eding Sport 1+ goals

60%

Eding Sport 2+ goals

23%

Eding Sport 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sable (draw refunded)

73%

Eding Sport (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sable at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sable attack 2.10 + Eding Sport defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.68

Eding Sport attack 0.93 + Sable defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sable scores more

55%

level

24%

Eding Sport scores more

21%

Sable at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sable will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff