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Eding Sport vs Sable — Elite Two 2020

Eding Sport
Eding Sport
FT
1 – 1
Sable
Sable
2/21/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Eding Sport37%
×Draw27%
Sable36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eding Sport
1.30
Sable
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 11 away

creates per match

Eding Sport
1.60
Sable
1.00

allows per match

Eding Sport
1.53
Sable
1.00

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par
Sable+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

Sable →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw
64%
Eding Sport or Sable
73%
Draw or Sable
63%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+
17%
Sable wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals
73%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
37%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
14%
Sable 1+ goals
72%
Sable 2+ goals
36%
Sable 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)
51%
Sable (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Sable away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.60 + Sable defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sable attack 1.00 + Eding Sport defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Eding Sport scores more
37%
level
27%
Sable scores more
36%

Eding Sport at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Eding Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eding Sport vs Sable

Eding Sport and Sable drew 1-1 in Elite Two on February 21, 2026.