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Sable Farming vs Red Lions — Super League 2026

Sable Farming
Sable Farming
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Red Lions
Red Lions
4/9/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sable Farming39%
×Draw28%
Red Lions33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sable Farming
1.23
Red Lions
1.11

Sable Farming creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 49 away

creates per match

Sable Farming
1.00
Red Lions
0.82

allows per match

Sable Farming
1.40
Red Lions
1.47

finishing

Sable Farming+0.00on par
Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sable Farming ↓

Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sable Farming or draw
67%
Sable Farming or Red Lions
72%
Draw or Red Lions
61%

Winning margin

Sable Farming wins by 2+
17%
Red Lions wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sable Farming 1+ goals
71%
Sable Farming 2+ goals
35%
Sable Farming 3+ goals
13%
Red Lions 1+ goals
67%
Red Lions 2+ goals
30%
Red Lions 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sable Farming (draw refunded)
54%
Red Lions (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sable Farming at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Red Lions away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sable Farming attack 1.00 + Red Lions defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Red Lions attack 0.82 + Sable Farming defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sable Farming scores more
39%
level
28%
Red Lions scores more
33%

Sable Farming at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sable Farming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sable Farming vs Red Lions

Sable Farming beat Red Lions 2-0 in Super League on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Mpira Stadium in Blantyre.