Red Lions 2–0 Sable Farming: Result & Stats

Red Lions

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sable Farming

9/18/2022

Super League · Round 17Balaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Red Lions46%

×Draw30%

Sable Farming24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red LionsExpected goals in this matchSable Farming

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.80

Red Lions

1.21

Sable Farming

0.80

Red Lions creates 51% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 15 away

0.88

creates per match

0.60

1.00

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Red Lions

0.88

Sable Farming

0.60

allows per match

Red Lions

1.00

Sable Farming

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Lions+0.00on par

Sable Farming+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Lions ↓

Sable Farming →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Red Lions or draw

76%

Red Lions or Sable Farming

70%

Draw or Sable Farming

54%

Winning margin

Red Lions wins by 2+

20%

Sable Farming wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Red Lions 1+ goals

70%

Red Lions 2+ goals

34%

Red Lions 3+ goals

12%

Sable Farming 1+ goals

55%

Sable Farming 2+ goals

19%

Sable Farming 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Red Lions (draw refunded)

65%

Sable Farming (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Lions at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

Sable Farming away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Lions attack 0.88 + Sable Farming defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sable Farming attack 0.60 + Red Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Red Lions scores more

46%

level

30%

Sable Farming scores more

24%

Red Lions at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff