Sable Farming 1–5 Nyasa Big Bullets: Result & Stats

Sable Farming

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Nyasa Big Bullets

10/19/2022

Super League · Round 21Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sable Farming22%

×Draw29%

Nyasa Big Bullets49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sable FarmingExpected goals in this matchNyasa Big Bullets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.31

Sable Farming

0.78

Nyasa Big Bullets

1.31

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

1.00

creates per match

1.23

1.40

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Sable Farming

1.00

Nyasa Big Bullets

1.23

allows per match

Sable Farming

1.40

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sable Farming+0.00on par

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sable Farming ↓

Nyasa Big Bullets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sable Farming or draw

51%

Sable Farming or Nyasa Big Bullets

71%

Draw or Nyasa Big Bullets

78%

Winning margin

Sable Farming wins by 2+

7%

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sable Farming 1+ goals

54%

Sable Farming 2+ goals

18%

Sable Farming 3+ goals

4%

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals

73%

Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals

38%

Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sable Farming (draw refunded)

31%

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sable Farming at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Nyasa Big Bullets away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.57 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sable Farming attack 1.00 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 1.23 + Sable Farming defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sable Farming scores more

22%

level

29%

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more

49%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff