Nyasa Big Bullets 1–0 Sable Farming: Result & Stats

Nyasa Big Bullets

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sable Farming

7/1/2022

Super League · Round 11Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets67%

×Draw21%

Sable Farming12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyasa Big BulletsExpected goals in this matchSable Farming

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.66

Nyasa Big Bullets

1.90

Sable Farming

0.66

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 188% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

2.27

creates per match

0.60

0.71

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

2.27

Sable Farming

0.60

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.71

Sable Farming

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Sable Farming+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Sable Farming →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw

88%

Nyasa Big Bullets or Sable Farming

79%

Draw or Sable Farming

33%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+

41%

Sable Farming wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals

85%

Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals

56%

Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals

29%

Sable Farming 1+ goals

48%

Sable Farming 2+ goals

14%

Sable Farming 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)

85%

Sable Farming (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

Sable Farming away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.27 + Sable Farming defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.90

Sable Farming attack 0.60 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more

67%

level

21%

Sable Farming scores more

12%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nyasa Big Bullets 1–0 Sable Farming

Nyasa Big Bullets beat Sable Farming 1-0 in Super League on July 1, 2022.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.

Nyasa Big Bullets vs Sable Farming — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Super League: Nyasa Big Bullets 1–0 Sable Farming