Sable Farming 2–2 CIVO United: Result & Stats

Sable Farming

FT

2 – 2

CIVO United

Unknown 81'

C. Ngapemba 4'

B. Katinji 90+3' (pen)

P. Phiri 71'

8/13/2022

Super League · Round 15Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sable Farming33%

×Draw28%

CIVO United39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sable FarmingExpected goals in this matchCIVO United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.20

Sable Farming

1.09

CIVO United

1.20

CIVO United creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.40

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Sable Farming

1.00

CIVO United

1.00

allows per match

Sable Farming

1.40

CIVO United

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sable Farming+0.00on par

CIVO United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sable Farming ↓

CIVO United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sable Farming or draw

61%

Sable Farming or CIVO United

72%

Draw or CIVO United

67%

Winning margin

Sable Farming wins by 2+

13%

CIVO United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sable Farming 1+ goals

66%

Sable Farming 2+ goals

30%

Sable Farming 3+ goals

10%

CIVO United 1+ goals

70%

CIVO United 2+ goals

34%

CIVO United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sable Farming (draw refunded)

46%

CIVO United (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sable Farming at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

CIVO United away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sable Farming attack 1.00 + CIVO United defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

CIVO United attack 1.00 + Sable Farming defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sable Farming scores more

33%

level

28%

CIVO United scores more

39%

CIVO United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CIVO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

C. Ngapemba

71'

P. Phiri

81'

90+3'

B. KatinjiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff