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CIVO United vs Sable Farming — Super League 2026

CIVO United
CIVO United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sable Farming
Sable Farming
C. Changa 77'
J. C. Kumwembe 27'
3/20/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CIVO United56%
×Draw28%
Sable Farming16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CIVO United
1.36
Sable Farming
0.59

CIVO United creates 131% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

CIVO United
1.20
Sable Farming
0.60

allows per match

CIVO United
0.59
Sable Farming
1.53

finishing

CIVO United+0.00on par
Sable Farming+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CIVO United ↓

Sable Farming →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CIVO United or draw
84%
CIVO United or Sable Farming
72%
Draw or Sable Farming
44%

Winning margin

CIVO United wins by 2+
27%
Sable Farming wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CIVO United 1+ goals
74%
CIVO United 2+ goals
39%
CIVO United 3+ goals
16%
Sable Farming 1+ goals
45%
Sable Farming 2+ goals
12%
Sable Farming 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

CIVO United (draw refunded)
78%
Sable Farming (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CIVO United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.59 · 75 matches

Sable Farming away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CIVO United attack 1.20 + Sable Farming defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sable Farming attack 0.60 + CIVO United defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CIVO United scores more
56%
level
28%
Sable Farming scores more
16%

CIVO United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CIVO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
J. C. Kumwembe
77'
C. Changa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CIVO United vs Sable Farming

CIVO United beat Sable Farming 2-0 in Super League on March 20, 2022.

Goals: J. C. Kumwembe (27'), C. Changa (77').

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.