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Sabah FA vs Perak — Malaysia Cup 2019

Sabah FA
Sabah FA
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Perak
Perak
9/15/2023Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Quarter-finalsLikas Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sabah FA51%
×Draw24%
Perak25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabah FA
1.75
Perak
1.16

Sabah FA creates 51% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sabah FA
1.00
Perak
1.25

allows per match

Sabah FA
1.07
Perak
2.50

finishing

Sabah FA+0.00on par
Perak+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabah FA ↓

Perak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sabah FA or draw
75%
Sabah FA or Perak
76%
Draw or Perak
49%

Winning margin

Sabah FA wins by 2+
28%
Perak wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sabah FA 1+ goals
83%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
52%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
25%
Perak 1+ goals
69%
Perak 2+ goals
32%
Perak 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sabah FA (draw refunded)
67%
Perak (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabah FA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Perak away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabah FA attack 1.00 + Perak defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Perak attack 1.25 + Sabah FA defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sabah FA scores more
51%
level
24%
Perak scores more
25%

Sabah FA at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Sabah FA 2–2 Perak

Sabah FA and Perak drew 2-2 in Malaysia Cup on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Likas Stadium in Kota Kinabalu.